The Fed Goes Quiet Until 28 October. Warsh Said Nothing First
For most of this week, the gold market was waiting for one speech. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was due in Bangkok on Friday, and it was his last chance to say anything before the Federal Reserve goes into its pre-meeting media blackout.
He spoke. He declined to prejudge any meeting, named October and December as the decision points, and sounded optimistic about the US economy. Gold recovered toward $4,200 on the back of it, which tells you the market had been braced for worse.
What the week before was actually about
Three other senior officials spoke in the two days before Warsh, and none ruled out a further increase.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said more hikes will probably be needed but that none is required at the October meeting, and that the timing should be thoughtful and deliberate. New York Fed President John Williams said he sees one more increase in 2026 and none in 2027. Governor Michelle Bowman described the Fed as in wait-and-see mode.
Read together, that is a central bank in no hurry and not finished. A month ago the market was broadly expecting the Fed to stop after its 16 September increase to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, which we covered in the September hike post. That assumption has gone.
The print that changed the tone
September consumer prices arrived on 14 October and came in hot on both measures.
Headline inflation rose to 3.7% year on year from 3.4%, against a 3.6% forecast, with prices up 0.6% on the month. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose to 2.6% from 2.4% against a 2.5% forecast. Petrol alone was up 9.1% in the month and was the single biggest contributor.
The core number is the one that worried people. Core rising means the pressure is no longer confined to fuel. Gold fell close to 2% on the day to $4,073 an ounce, its five-day low, before recovering.
Why a Fed meeting moves a gold price
Gold pays no interest. A bank deposit and a government bond both do, so when rates and bond yields rise, holding gold costs you more in income forgone, and money moves out of it. When the odds of further rises fall, that pressure eases.
That is the entire mechanism, and it is why a speech in Bangkok mattered more this week than anything happening in a jewellery shop.
The part nobody is saying out loud
The Fed is now in its media blackout until the decision on 28 October. No official will say anything further about rates between now and then.
So whatever you think about the October meeting, you are going to think it on the information available today. There is no more guidance coming. Anyone claiming to know what happens on the 28th is guessing from the same public numbers as everyone else, and the week just demonstrated how little those numbers settle: two hot inflation readings, four officials talking, and the price ended roughly where it started.
The reframe: a blackout is a good time to stop watching
There is something clarifying about a period when no new information can arrive. For two weeks, refreshing the news will tell you nothing you do not already know.
Which makes it a reasonable moment to go back to the only numbers that actually determine what you pay for a piece:
Price = (gram weight × purity × the day's gold rate) + workmanship + 9% GSTOne of those four terms moves with the Fed, and it moves in Singapore dollars per gram after the exchange rate has had its say, which softens the effect further. The other three are fixed by the piece you pick. We publish the local figures every month, most recently in the September edition, and we set out who really sets the daily number in paper markets and the physical floor.
At JJ Gold we will quote you the live rate and weigh the piece in front of you, and if you want to wait until after the 28th, we will still be here on the 29th with the same scales. Everything we sell is real 916 or 999 gold, never plated, hallmarked, with weight and purity written on the receipt. If a piece sits past what you wanted to spend in one go, it can go on Shop Now, Pay Later with up to 12-month instalments through Atome, PayLater by Grab, or SPayLater by Shopee, and we compare what each costs in our instalment guide.
September US inflation came in at 3.7% headline and 2.6% core, both above forecast, with petrol up 9.1% on the month. Daly, Williams and Bowman all left another rate rise on the table. Warsh, speaking in Bangkok on 16 October, would not prejudge either meeting. The Fed is now silent until 28 October.
Come in and see the arithmetic for yourself, whichever way the meeting goes. City Plaza #01-47 (810 Geylang Road, Singapore 409286) or Lucky Plaza #02-47 (304 Orchard Road, Singapore 238863). Call 8950 4377 for the day's rate before you make the trip.
Four officials spoke and told you nothing. The scale at the counter is more forthcoming.